In today’s episode of Make Money Count, Marcus and Justin break down what’s really driving your mortgage rate right now, and why Trump’s approach to Iran is playing out nothing like his approach to Canada, Germany, or the EU. Given how well the “go all in and wait for the other side to fold” strategy has worked almost everywhere else, most people expected Iran to eventually cave the same way.

Here is what they found instead.

Iran Is Not Folding, And Here Is Why

Trump’s negotiating style has worked because counterparties have something to lose, whether that is political standing, trade relationships, or public support. Iran’s regime has none of that exposure. It does not answer to voters, and it has spent five decades of oil revenue building a security apparatus that keeps it firmly in control regardless of public pressure.

There is also a cost problem. A relatively cheap drone can force an expensive missile response, meaning Iran can sustain this conflict at a fraction of what it costs the United States. Marcus compared it to a poker table where one side is betting million dollar chips and the other only has to call with twenty grand.

The Strait of Hormuz Tells Its Own Story

Using live maritime tracking data, Marcus walked through more than 100 days of tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels are going dark, shipping traffic is quietly shifting toward China, and the numbers moving in and out of the region are changing week to week as tensions rise and ease.

This matters because Hormuz is one of the most important oil shipping corridors in the world. When oil cannot move freely through it, that pressure works its way into oil prices, then into inflation, and eventually into the mortgage rate being offered to Canadians.

Bond Yields Are Now Moving Before the Headlines

This is the part of the episode that changes how the news should be read. The expected order is that conflict escalates, oil prices rise, bond yields rise, and mortgage rate offers follow. That is not what the data showed.

Marcus walked through a day by day breakdown of July and found that bond yields moved ahead of major headlines, not after them. Yields climbed noticeably before Trump’s announcement that a ceasefire was over, then eased once the announcement landed. Later in the month, tanker traffic through Hormuz slowed to a crawl, yet yields did not spike the way that would normally be expected.

The takeaway: markets are no longer reacting to this conflict. They are anticipating it.

Why This War Is Not Triggering a Flight to Safety

Normally, war pushes investors toward safer assets, which pulls bond yields down. That has not happened here. Inflation concerns appear to be overriding the usual safe haven response, keeping yields elevated even as the conflict drags on. It is one of the reasons the link between this war and mortgage rate movement has been harder to predict than usual.

Political Capital Is Part of the Cost Too

Beyond the military and economic toll, there is a political one. Every day this conflict continues costs Trump support at home. Iran’s regime, with no elections to answer to, does not face that same pressure. That imbalance is part of why this conflict has outlasted expectations, and why its ripple effects on markets have as well.

What This Episode Is Really About

A war playing out thousands of miles away is directly shaping what Canadians pay on their mortgage today. The bond market’s shift from reactive to predictive, the breakdown at the Strait of Hormuz, and the political and financial asymmetry between Iran and the US are not abstract details. They are part of why mortgage rate movement has looked so unusual in recent weeks.

Not sure what your mortgage options are? Talk to a Cannect expert now.

Watch the full episode of Make Money Count for the complete breakdown. Subscribe to the Cannect YouTube channel for weekly mortgage and real estate insights you will not find anywhere else.