What’s Really Happening in the Housing Market Now

In this episode of Make Money Count, Marcus and Justin break down three major reports — from Royal Bank, TD Bank, and Oxford Economics — and compare them to their own December 2024 predictions.

Spoiler: everyone missed the mark.

Royal Bank claimed housing affordability is the best it’s been in three years, citing ownership costs dropping in major cities. But they’re not expecting that trend to last long. Why? Because while interest rates might come down a little more, wages are flat, and prices aren’t likely to drop dramatically. So… we’re nearing the affordability “bottom.”

TD Bank? They’re more optimistic. They see prices increasing in the second half of 2025. Oxford Economics? Nope. They predict an 8–10% drop in housing prices. So, what’s going on? Nobody knows, and that’s kind of the point.

Let’s Talk About Wages, Rates & Reality

Affordability isn’t just about home prices; it’s about income. And when incomes aren’t rising, the only way to improve affordability is by cutting interest rates or home prices. Since wage growth is weak, we may not see a big shift.

Marcus and Justin agree that interest rates should’ve been cut more by now, especially as the economy slows. But the reality is murky, and policy seems more cautious than proactive.

Detached, Semi, Townhouse & Condo — How Wrong Were We?

Marcus and Justin went back to their December 2024 predictions for GTA home prices. In total, Justin’s predictions were off by a whopping 50%, while Marcus is sitting pretty at 17% wrong. But hey, the year’s not over yet, and as they both admit, no one knows where we’re headed.

Trade Wars, Tariffs & Trump Math

One wildcard that could shift everything? U.S.–Canada trade negotiations. Oxford Economics warns that trade uncertainty is still looming, and Canada might lose more jobs just to get a deal done.

Trump’s version of a win is a zero-sum game: 200,000 jobs lost in Canada = 200,000 jobs gained in the U.S. That might be good for his base but not so great for our housing outlook.

So What Happens Next?

That’s the million-dollar question, and Make Money Count isn’t about giving you a crystal ball. It’s about helping you understand the real moving parts in the market, beyond the headlines and hype.