The numbers dropping this Friday could move your mortgage rate, and the agency publishing them just lost all its data collectors. If you’ve been watching bond yields creep higher, fixed rates climb, and the economic news out of the United States gets stranger by the week, you’re not imagining it. Something is off. And this Friday at 8:30 AM, it’s about to get a lot more interesting.

In this week’s Make Money Count, Marcus and Justin sit down to talk about what’s really happening behind the US jobs report, why the data can’t fully be trusted, and what it all means for Canadian borrowers right now.

The Jobs Report Nobody Can Fully Trust

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the agency responsible for publishing US employment data. It’s the number that moves bond markets, influences central bank decisions, and ultimately affects what Canadians pay on their mortgage every month. And right now, that agency has a serious problem.

The BLS recently had its budget cut by $56 million. Data collectors, the people actually gathering employment information on the ground, were laid off as part of broader government restructuring. The result? Two full months of job reports went entirely missing. Never published.

When former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen heard about it, she called it exactly what it looks like: banana republic behavior. And she’s not wrong. The integrity of economic data is the foundation on which bond markets and mortgage rates are built. When that foundation is compromised, everyone pays the price.

5% Treasury Yields and What It Means for Your Mortgage

The 30-year US Treasury yield recently climbed to 5%, a level that hasn’t been seen in quite some time. This matters for Canadians because the Government of Canada bond yield follows the U.S. Treasury market very closely. When US yields go up, Canadian bond yields follow, and when bond yields rise, fixed mortgage rates rise with them.

Canadian banks are quick to pass on increases and slow to pass on relief. That asymmetry costs borrowers real money. For anyone renewing or looking to lock in a rate, mortgages are already more expensive than they were a year ago. And depending on what happens Friday morning, that number could move even higher.

60,000 Jobs. Missing Data. You Do the Math.

The consensus among economists and major banks is that Friday’s number will be weak, around 60,000 jobs. If it does, bond yields in both the US and Canada should ease, bringing some relief to fixed mortgage rates. But if the number comes in higher than expected, even artificially so, yields spike, and Canadian borrowers feel it almost immediately.

This is the bind that makes Friday’s report so complicated. A strong number isn’t necessarily good news. It could simply mean the data isn’t telling the full story. And for anyone making a mortgage decision based on where rates are heading, that uncertainty is a real problem.

The question isn’t just what the number will be. It’s whether we can trust it at all.

The Fed Chair Situation Nobody Is Talking About

Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell failed. But that doesn’t mean the Federal Reserve’s independence is secure. A new Fed chair is on the way, widely expected to push for rate cuts regardless of the inflationary environment. On the surface, lower rates sound like good news for your mortgage. But cutting rates while inflation is still running is one of the most dangerous moves a central bank can make.

Turkey did exactly this a few years ago under political pressure. The result was runaway inflation that devastated the economy and wiped out purchasing power for millions of people. Janet Yellen’s banana republic comment wasn’t just about the jobs data. It was about a pattern of behavior, one that prioritizes short-term optics over long-term economic stability. And for Canada, the ripple effects of that behavior are very real.

What This Means for Canadian Borrowers Right Now

Canada isn’t immune to what’s happening south of the border. Our bond yields follow the US Treasury markets. Our fixed mortgage rates respond to those yields. And Canadian borrowers, especially those renewing in the next 12 to 18 months, are caught in the middle of a situation that has very little to do with Canadian economic policy and everything to do with decisions being made in Washington.

An artificially inflated jobs number on Friday could push mortgage rates higher at a time when Canadian consumers are already stretched. A weak number could bring some relief. But with data collectors gone and two months of reports already missing, the number itself is only half the story.

The borrowers who come out of this period in the best shape won’t be the ones who got lucky. They’ll be the ones who paid attention early, asked the right questions, and made decisions before the window closed.

The Conversation Worth Having Before Friday

The data right now is uncertain. But uncertainty doesn’t mean powerless. Understanding what’s driving your mortgage rate, the treasury yields, the Fed chair drama, and the missing jobs data puts you in a far better position than reacting after the fact.

That’s exactly the kind of conversation Make Money Count exists for.

The full breakdown is on YouTube, where Marcus and Justin go deeper into the data, the risks, and what every Canadian borrower needs to know before Friday morning. It’s the kind of conversation that could genuinely change how you approach your next mortgage decision.

And if you want to stay ahead of conversations like this one, subscribe to the Cannect YouTube channel. Marcus and Justin bring you real talk about real numbers that affect real people. The kind of insight most people only find after it’s already too late.