Something is shifting in Canada’s economy and it’s happening faster than most people realise. Inflation is climbing, gasoline prices in Canada in 2026 are surging, and the mortgage market is caught in the middle of it all. If you’ve been feeling it at the gas pump, at the grocery store, or in your monthly bills, you’re not imagining it. The numbers back you up.

In this week’s Make Money Count, Marcus and Justin sit down to break down exactly what’s happening, why it matters, and most importantly, what you should be doing about it right now.

The Inflation Number Nobody Wanted To See

The March CPI number came in at 2.4%, a 60 basis point jump from February’s 1.8%. That might not sound dramatic on paper, but in the world of monetary policy, a 60 basis point spike in a single month is significant. It’s the kind of number that gets the Bank of Canada’s attention.

The bigger concern, though, isn’t March. It’s April.

The Bank of Canada has a meeting scheduled for June 10th, and the April CPI number drops on May 19th. Different banks are calling for different figures. BMO’s Doug Porter has suggested 3%, with upside risk if oil stays above $90. With oil currently sitting at $110, that upside risk is looking less like a possibility and more like a certainty.

National Bank has gone even further, suggesting the April number could land close to 3.5%. If that happens, the Bank of Canada’s already difficult job gets a whole lot harder.

Gasoline Prices In Canada 2026  The Record Nobody Wanted

This is where the numbers get truly uncomfortable. Gasoline prices in Canada in 2026 just recorded their largest single-month spike in history. Not in recent years. Not in the last decade. Ever. According to StatsCan data, gasoline prices surged 21.2% in a single month a number that sent shockwaves through the inflation data and directly impacts everything from grocery prices to transportation costs.

With oil sitting at $110 a barrel and no clear sign of it coming down, the ripple effect on everyday Canadians is only just beginning to show up. Grocery prices are climbing because transportation costs are climbing. And the connection between what’s happening at the gas pump and what’s happening in your wallet is more direct than most people realise.

The Global Conflict Nobody Is Connecting To Your Mortgage

Here’s something most people aren’t talking about openly global conflict is directly moving Canadian mortgage rates. And you don’t need to follow the news minute by minute to understand it. Just watch the bond market.

The 30-year US Treasury recently broke 5% for the first time in a long time. The 10-year Treasury is sitting at 4.44%. Canada’s 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is at 3.26-3.27%. These numbers matter because Canadian fixed mortgage rates are tethered directly to the 5-year bond yield.

When bond yields go up, fixed rates follow almost immediately. When bond yields come back down, fixed rates are much slower to respond. Canadian banks are quick to pass on increases and slow to pass on relief. That asymmetry costs borrowers real money.

To put it in perspective, a $600,000 mortgage at 4.3% costs around $3,265 a month. That same mortgage at 5% is $3,499 a month. That’s $234 more every single month, or nearly $2,800 a year just from a 70 basis point move on the bond yield.

Stagflation: Canada’s Most Uncomfortable Conversation

Stagflation. It’s a word that economists don’t use lightly and for good reason. It describes a scenario where economic growth stalls while inflation continues to rise. It’s the worst of both worlds, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore as a real possibility for Canada right now.

The Canadian economy is already in a stranglehold because of tariffs. Layer rising inflation driven in large part by surging gasoline prices across Canada in 2026, on top of stagnant growth, and you have a situation that puts the Bank of Canada in an incredibly difficult position. Raising rates to combat inflation risks strangling an already struggling economy. Holding rates or cutting them risks letting inflation run even hotter.

There is genuine debate among Canada’s major banks right now about whether we’ll see a rate hike. Some think it’s coming. Some think it won’t happen. Marcus’s take? No rate hike in 2026, but the risk is real enough that it needs to be factored into your mortgage strategy.

The One Mortgage Move Worth Making Right Now

So what do you actually do with all of this information?

Marcus’s recommendation is clear: lock in a pre-approval on a three-year fixed rate right now. Here’s the thinking behind it.

Global conflicts tend to drag on. But with gasoline prices in Canada in 2026 already at record levels, this level of pricing is simply not sustainable for three years. At some point, the pressure eases, inflation comes back down, and the Bank of Canada gets room to move. A three-year fixed gives you protection from near-term volatility while keeping you flexible enough to benefit when conditions improve.

The strategy is straightforward: lock in the three-year fixed now, and when you get closer to your closing date, revisit whether a variable rate makes sense. Because once the inflationary pressure gets worked out of the system, the Canadian economy still has its own challenges to deal with, and that likely means more rate relief down the road.

Get ahead of it. Call well in advance of your renewal, purchase, or refinance. Lock in the rate. Decide with a clear head rather than under pressure.

Final Thought

The data right now is uncomfortable. But the borrowers who come out of this period in the best shape won’t be the ones who got lucky. They’ll be the ones who paid attention early, asked the right questions, and made decisions before the window closed.

That’s exactly the kind of conversation Make Money Count exists for. 

The Numbers Are Out. Are You Paying Attention?

Most Canadians are going to feel this one before they understand it. The inflation spike shows up in their grocery bill. The bond market moves, and suddenly, their renewal looks very different. The rate window closed, and nobody told them it was even open.

If this episode got you thinking, don’t stop here. The full conversation is on YouTube, where Marcus and Justin go deeper into the data, the risks, and the moves worth making right now. It’s the kind of conversation that could genuinely change how you approach your next mortgage decision.

Understanding what’s coming is always better than reacting to what’s already happened. This episode is exactly where that starts.

And if you want to stay ahead of conversations like this one, subscribe to the Cannect YouTube channel. Every week, Marcus and Justin bring you real talk about real numbers that affect real people. The kind of insight most people only find after it’s already too late.