If you’ve been feeling like the condo market has gone suspiciously quiet lately, you’re not imagining it.
On this week’s Make Money Count podcast, Marcus and Justin unpack what’s really happening in Canada’s condo market, and spoiler alert: the numbers are ugly, the trend is worse, and the recovery won’t be quick.
And no, this isn’t doom-scrolling for clicks. This is about understanding what the data is actually telling us, so buyers, investors, and homeowners don’t make decisions based on wishful thinking.
The Condo Market Is the Weakest It’s Been Since the Early ’90s
Let’s start with the headline reality:
- New condo sales in the GTA and Hamilton area hit their lowest level since 1991
- Sales are down roughly 91% compared to the 10-year average.
- Compared to the 2021 peak? Down about 95%
To put that into perspective:
- Around 30,000 new condos were sold in 2021
- Roughly 1,500 sold last year
- In the last quarter alone, only about 260 units were sold
That’s not a slowdown. That’s a market falling off a cliff.
Data from Urbanation, one of the most respected housing data sources in the country, confirms this is the weakest condo sales environment in four decades.
Oversupply Is the Real Problem (And It’s Getting Worse)
Here’s where things get more concerning.
In Toronto alone, we’re looking at:
- ~25,000 unsold condo units
- 2,000+ completed units sitting empty
- 11,000 units under construction
- Another 11,000 in pre-construction (many of which may never move forward)
And that’s before accounting for what’s known as shadow inventory, units not officially listed but waiting to hit the market.
Supply keeps growing. Demand is nowhere to be found. And when that happens, prices don’t stabilise, they fall.
It’s Not Just Toronto: Calgary, Too
This isn’t a Toronto-only issue. In Calgary, condo prices have already fallen by around 11%, driven, as you might expect, by oversupply. National coverage from outlets like The Globe and Mail shows condos in some markets trading at 2017 price levels.
That’s nearly a decade of price appreciation erased.
Investors Are Sitting on the Sidelines, And for Good Reason
One of the most telling quotes comes from Bank of Montreal economists:
“Investors aren’t going to touch this market.”
Why would they?
- Condo prices are falling.
- Rents are softening
- Cash flow is often negative.
- Financing is tighter than ever.
That combination is toxic for investor confidence.
The Billion-Dollar Fund That Could Change Everything
Here’s where things get interesting.
Behind the scenes, a massive fund, reportedly over $1 billion, is being assembled with backing from:
- Major banks
- Institutional investors
- Multiple levels of government
Its mandate?
- Buy up unsold condo inventory.
- Convert a portion into affordable housing.
- Help stabilise pricing by absorbing excess supply.
If executed well, this could provide temporary relief, not a full recovery, but a floor. It also highlights something critical: The market cannot fix this on its own anymore.
Why This Matters Beyond Real Estate Prices
Marcus makes a point that often gets lost in housing discussions:
When housing becomes unaffordable, the entire city pays the price.
- Increased homelessness strains healthcare.
- ERs and mental health services get overwhelmed.
- Police, fire, and emergency services face added pressure.
- Economic productivity suffers
In cities like Toronto, housing affordability isn’t just a real estate issue; it’s a social and economic one.
This Is a Moment, Don’t Waste It
Canada has a rare opportunity at the moment.
Supply is high.
Prices are adjusting.
Governments, lenders, and markets are finally aligned around affordability.
The question is whether we use this moment strategically, or repeat the mistakes of the past.
As Marcus puts it:
Let’s not waste it.
Want the full conversation, charts, and context?
Watch this week’s Make Money Count podcast and hear the discussion straight from the source.
If you’re buying, selling, investing, or simply trying to understand where the market is headed, this is one episode you don’t want to miss.
