In today’s episode of Make Money Count, Marcus and Justin break down Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair. Given that Trump handpicked him and has made no secret of wanting lower rate, most people expected an easy first move in that direction.

Here is what they found instead.

Inflation Took The Spotlight, Not Politics

Warsh spent most of his first meeting talking about inflation, not rate cuts. He acknowledged the Fed cannot control the oil price spike tied to the conflict overseas, but was clear that the resulting inflation is still the Fed’s problem to manage.

This matters because it signals something specific: Warsh is not walking in as a rubber stamp for lower rates just because that is what got him the job.

The Dot Plot Just Flipped

Each quarter, the Fed’s 19 policymakers anonymously submit where they think interest rates should land. It is called the dot plot, and it is usually a solid read on where the committee is leaning.

In March, the average dot pointed to 3.4%, signaling room for a cut. By this meeting, that number jumped to 3.8%. Nine officials are now calling for a hike. Eight want to hold. Only one, a known Trump ally, wants a cut.

Warsh himself did not submit a dot at all. He has said publicly that the Fed gives too much forward guidance, and skipping the dot plot might be the first sign this tool is on its way out entirely.

Wall Street Wants One Thing, Main Street Needs Another

One line from Warsh stood out: rates are too low for Wall Street but too high for Main Street. Asset prices are heating up while everyday borrowers, especially in housing, are stuck with rates that feel out of reach.

The problem is the Fed only has one blunt tool, the overnight rate, to fix two very different problems at once. Raising it cools inflation but punishes housing further. Holding it lets inflation run while doing nothing for affordability.

Canada Gets Squeezed From Both Sides

If the US holds steady or hikes while the Bank of Canada does not, the Canadian dollar weakens. A weaker dollar makes everything we import more expensive, which adds even more inflation pressure here at home.

That puts the Bank of Canada in an uncomfortable spot: an economy that could use a rate cut, sitting next to a currency problem that might force a hike instead.

The Banks Cannot Agree, And That Is Useful Information

RBC is forecasting a full percentage point of cuts by the end of 2027. Scotiabank is calling for 75 basis points of hikes. TD and BMO see no change at all. CIBC lands in between.

Marcus and Justin walked through what this actually means for someone choosing between a variable and a fixed rate right now. If you believe the dovish banks, the spread on a variable rate still works in your favor even with some upside risk. If you believe the hawkish call, locking into a three-year fixed makes more sense as protection.

What This Episode Is Really About

A single Fed meeting can ripple all the way down to a mortgage decision in Canada. The dot plot, the bank forecasts, and the Wall Street/Main Street tension are not abstract concepts. They directly shape whether variable or fixed makes more sense for your situation today.

Watch the full episode of Make Money Count for the complete breakdown. Subscribe to the Cannect YouTube channel for weekly mortgage and real estate insights you will not find anywhere else.