The Bank of Canada’s next rates decision is days away and if you have a mortgage, a renewal coming up, or any stake in the Canadian economy, this one matters more than most people realize.

Marcus and Justin broke it all down on the latest episode of Make Money Count. Here’s what you need to know before June 10th arrives.

A Rate Cut Is Not Coming

Let’s get the most important thing out of the way first. The market is pricing in a 97% chance of a rate hold on June 10th. Not a cut. A hold. And given everything happening right now with inflation, oil prices, and bond yields, that is the only call that makes sense.

Cutting rates while inflation is rising is not a strategy. It is a trap. You cut 25 basis points because the economy is stalled, and then inflation prints at 3% and keeps climbing. The Bank of Canada would be handing borrowers short-term relief while creating a much bigger problem down the road.

Canada Is in a Recession. And Prices Are Still Rising.

GDP growth came in at negative 0.1%. The economy is operating below capacity. Reports from National Bank and TD both paint a picture of an economy that has quietly stalled out.

But here is the uncomfortable part. Inflation is not cooperating. Canada’s April CPI came in at 2.8%, and the May number is expected to come in even hotter. That puts the Bank of Canada in an impossible position. The usual tools do not work when a recession and inflation are happening at the same time.

The Strait of Hormuz Is Affecting Your Mortgage Rate

This is the part most mortgage conversations skip over. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated. Elevated oil prices feed directly into inflation. Inflation keeps bond yields high. High bond yields keep fixed mortgage rates high.

Every time it looked like the situation was resolving, something shifted. Until there is real clarity on the energy market, fixed rates are not going anywhere meaningful.

What the Big Banks Are Actually Predicting

Here is where things get interesting. The major Canadian banks are not all singing the same tune.

Scotia Bank is forecasting 75 basis points of rate increases by the end of 2026. RBC sees rates going up a full percentage point by 2027. RBC, CIBC, and National Bank are all sitting at 2.75% as their end target, meaning 50 basis points added on from where we are today. TD and BMO are the outliers, holding at 2.25%.

Marcus and Justin’s take? Some of these forecasts are not happening. But the fact that multiple major banks are forecasting rate increases rather than cuts tells you everything about the environment we are in right now.

The Renewal Trap Most Canadians Are Walking Into

40% of Canadian mortgages are renewing in 2026. That is a massive wave of homeowners who are about to receive renewal offers from their banks, and most of them will not know what to do with them.

Here is the reality. Your bank is not competing for your business at renewal. They are counting on your inertia. They will send you a number that looks reasonable on the surface and hope you sign without shopping around.

Marcus shared a real example this week. A client two weeks away from his renewal date who had been waiting for his bank to send something reasonable. They finally did. It was not reasonable. And with two weeks left, the options narrow fast.

The move is simple. Get a rate locked in early. Get your bank competing as soon as possible. Do not wait for them to come to you with their best offer because that is not how they operate.

Why the Three-Year Fixed Still Makes Sense

With everything happening right now, Marcus and Justin are still pointing clients toward the three-year fixed at 3.99%. The reasoning is straightforward. Three years from now, rates are unlikely to be higher than they are today unless something significant changes in the global economy. Locking in now gives you certainty in an environment that has very little of it.

Variable rates are not off the table entirely, but with most banks forecasting increases over the next two years, the math has to work in your favour before that product makes sense.

The Bottom Line

June 10th is not just another Bank of Canada meeting. It is a signal. A hold confirms that the central bank sees the same inflation risk that the data is pointing to. It confirms that the easy rate cut cycle is over for now. And it means that every Canadian with a mortgage needs to be making decisions based on where things are today, not where they hoped things would be.

Do not wait for your bank to tell you what to do. Get informed. Get competitive. And get your rate locked in before the market shifts again.

Watch the full episode of Make Money Count for the complete breakdown.