If you have ever sat across from your bank manager and walked away feeling like you got a great deal on your mortgage, this is the episode that might make you think twice. In today’s episode of Make Money Count, Marcus and Justin are having the mortgage conversation most Canadians never get to have. And the more you understand about how the mortgage market actually works, the more you realize your bank was never really on your side.

The Mortgage Market Right Now Is Not Normal

Bond yields have moved 70 basis points since March. That is not a small number. Government of Canada bond yields went from 2.7% to 3.4% in a matter of weeks, and fixed mortgage rates have followed almost immediately. The orange madman south of the border, the ongoing oscillation around Iran, and energy prices hovering around $110 a barrel have created a mortgage environment that is anything but predictable.

For anyone with a mortgage renewal coming up, understanding what is driving these numbers is not optional. It is the difference between making a smart mortgage decision and an expensive one.

Why Your Bank Is Not Your Friend

Here is the mortgage truth your bank will never put in a brochure. Your bank has two sets of rates. The rate they offer to clients they are trying to win over, and the rate they offer to clients who are already with them and not going anywhere.

When you lock in a variable-rate mortgage with your bank and feel good about the deal you got, your bank is already thinking about the next move. Three years down the road, when you call them up to lock into a fixed rate, they are not going to offer you the discounted rate your neighbour got. They are going to point you to the posted rate on their website. And if you want to leave, you are going to pay a penalty first.

That is not an accident. That is a strategy. And the only way to beat it is to never play the game in the first place.

Fixed vs Variable. The Honest Mortgage Answer.

Marcus makes it very clear in this episode. In the current mortgage market, the three-year fixed is the smartest play. Here is why.

The five-year fixed is almost meaningless right now. The situation driving bond yields higher, energy prices, geopolitical tension, and inflation pressure, is not going to last five years. When oil prices come back down, inflation will ease, bond yields will follow, and fixed mortgage rates will come off. Locking in for five years means you are paying a premium for certainty you do not need.

The three-year fixed gives you protection against the short-term volatility while keeping you flexible enough to benefit when rates eventually come down. And when your closing date gets closer, Marcus recommends taking a long, hard look at the variable rate. With prime at 4.45 and variable rates sitting at prime minus one, you are already pricing in 50 basis points of rate escalation that may never come.

The Most Underrated Mortgage Move. Start Early.

Most Canadians wait until their mortgage renewal is right around the corner before they pick up the phone. That is one of the most expensive mistakes you can make.

If you have six months until your mortgage matures, that is when the mortgage conversation needs to start. Not four months out. Not two months out. Six months. That is when you lock in a rate, secure the lowest available rate from that day all the way to your closing date, and give yourself the flexibility to switch to a variable rate if things change.

Every week a good mortgage broker goes through every single file to make sure their clients are getting the best available rate. Your bank is not doing that for you. Your bank is waiting for you to stop paying attention.

The Mortgage Move That Changes Everything

Work with a mortgage broker. It does not have to be Cannect. Marcus and Justin say it themselves. Just make sure it is someone who knows what they are doing and is working for you, not for the lender.

A salaried mortgage broker has no incentive to push you toward a product that benefits the bank. They are going to find you the best available mortgage rate, hold it for you, and make sure you are protected all the way to your closing date. And when it comes time to lock in your variable rate down the road, a monoline lender is going to offer you the lowest available discounted rate without the games your bank plays with captive clients.

The mortgage market right now is complicated. Bond yields are moving. Fixed rates are climbing. And the decisions you make in the next few months are going to follow you for years.

The borrowers who come out ahead will not be the ones who got lucky. They will be the ones who started early, asked the right questions, and stopped trusting their bank to do the right thing.

The Bottom Line

Your mortgage is one of the biggest financial decisions you will ever make. And the institution you are trusting to guide you through it has a financial incentive to work against you.

The full episode is on YouTube. Marcus and Justin go deeper into the bond yield data, the fixed vs variable debate, and the honest mortgage strategy every Canadian borrower needs to hear right now. Watch it before your next mortgage decision because the conversation your bank never wants you to have is exactly the one worth having.

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