Canada’s Inflation Is Out of Control & Your Mortgage Is Next

If you have been standing at the grocery checkout lately doing quiet math in your head, you are not alone. If you have been wincing at the pump every time you fill up, you are not imagining it. In this episode of Make Money Count, Marcus and Justin sit down to talk about something every Canadian borrower needs to hear right now. Canada’s inflation is out of control, and the April CPI numbers that just dropped are proof that this is not slowing down anytime soon. For anyone with a mortgage renewal coming up, this is the conversation you cannot afford to miss.

The Number That Caught Everyone Off Guard

April’s inflation data is in, and while the headline number is being watched closely by the Bank of Canada, it is the detail behind the data that tells the real story. Core CPI and trim CPI, the numbers the Bank of Canada actually uses to guide its decisions, are sitting close to that comfortable 2% target. So far so good.

But pull back the curtain and things look very different. Canada’s inflation is out of control when you look at the numbers that everyday Canadians are actually living with. Gas and food are running hot. Very hot. And the ripple effects are only just beginning to show up in places that matter most, like your monthly mortgage payment.

Gas Up 40% and Still Climbing

Gasoline prices surged 28% in the month of April alone. Since the conflict in the Middle East escalated and the Strait of Hormuz became a pressure point for global oil supply, gas prices in Canada are now up nearly 40%. Transportation costs followed almost immediately, jumping close to 8% in the same period.

This is not just a number on a chart. It is showing up in delivery costs, grocery prices, and the quiet decisions Canadians are making every single day about whether the commute to work is still worth it. At a certain point, something has to give. And right now, a lot of things are happening all at once.

The Grocery Store Is Not Your Friend Right Now

Food prices are up nearly 4%, and the conversation around why is one that does not reflect well on Canada’s largest grocery chains. While everyday Canadians are recalculating what they can afford to put on the table, Canada’s biggest grocers are on track for another quarter of record earnings. The math does not add up, and Marcus and Justin do not let it slide.

The $5 tomato is not just a punchline. It is a signal. And when Canada’s inflation is out of control at the grocery store and at the pump at the same time, that signal tends to mean something bigger is coming.

Will The Bank of Canada Raise Rates?

Here is where it gets interesting. Bond yields have spiked. Economists are beating the drum for a rate hike. The conventional wisdom says the Bank of Canada has no choice but to act.

But Marcus makes a compelling case for why raising rates right now would be exactly the wrong move. Increasing the cost of borrowing will not stop Canadians from filling up their gas tanks to get to work. It will not bring food prices down. What it will do is put enormous pressure on the Canadian consumer at a moment when budgets are already stretched to the limit.

Canada’s inflation is out of control for reasons that a rate hike simply cannot fix. The federal government’s gas tax reprieve is buying some time. But how much time is the real question? And the Bank of Canada knows it.

The Rate Window Is Closing. Here Is What That Means For You.

Five-year fixed rates are sitting close to 4% right now with almost no spread on the bond yield. That is a remarkably competitive number. But it will not last.

If you have a mortgage renewal coming up in the next four to six months, the window to lock in a rate that works in your favour is open right now. It will not stay open. The borrowers who come out of this period ahead will not be the ones who waited for certainty. They will be the ones who moved while the opportunity was still there.

Marcus and Justin break down exactly what move makes sense right now and why getting ahead of this decision could save you a significant amount of money when it matters most.

The Bottom Line

No matter where oil prices go. No matter what happens in the Middle East. No matter what the Bank of Canada decides at its next meeting. Canada’s inflation is out of control right now, and the Canadian economy is feeling every bit of it.

The question is not whether things are going to get harder. The question is whether you are going to be ready when they do.

The full episode is on YouTube. Marcus and Justin go deeper into the data, the risks, and the honest conversation about what every Canadian borrower needs to know right now. Watch it before your next rate decision because this is exactly the kind of conversation that tends to look very obvious in hindsight.

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