The mortgage industry in Canada is constantly evolving and is influenced by a range of domestic and international factors. The U.S. government’s recent import tariff increase is one of the latest developments making waves. While this might seem like a purely political or economic move on the global stage, it has significant consequences for Canadian homeowners, buyers, and investors. So, how exactly do tariffs in the U.S. affect mortgage rates in Canada?
The Link Between Tariffs, Inflation, and Interest Rates
Tariffs function as a tax on imported goods, making them more expensive for consumers and businesses. When the U.S. raises tariffs, the cost of various products—ranging from electronics to raw materials—goes up. This contributes to inflation in the U.S., prompting the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policies. Historically, when inflation rises, central banks respond by increasing interest rates to slow down spending and borrowing.
However, the current economic situation is a bit more complex. Despite inflationary concerns, the U.S. economy is also showing signs of slowing down, and markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year. These expectations impact global bond markets, including those in Canada, influencing mortgage rates here at home.
How This Affects Canadian Mortgage Rates
In Canada, fixed mortgage rates are heavily tied to government bond yields. When U.S. tariffs create uncertainty in financial markets, investors often seek safer investments, driving down bond yields. This, in turn, typically leads to lower fixed mortgage rates. However, banks and lenders don’t always pass these lower bond yields on to borrowers immediately. Currently, despite falling bond yields, fixed mortgage rates remain higher than expected. This lag means that homeowners and buyers should carefully weigh their options when choosing fixed and variable rates.
Why Variable Rates Still Make Sense
At Cannect, we’ve long advocated for variable-rate mortgages, and the current economic climate reinforces this position. While fixed rates have been slow to drop, variable rates remain flexible and poised to benefit as interest rates decline shortly.
With the Bank of Canada expected to cut rates due to economic pressures, variable-rate mortgage holders could see lower payments sooner than those locked into fixed terms. For borrowers looking for flexibility and potential cost savings, a variable rate remains a strong option.
The Housing Market Response: More Listings, More Uncertainty
Higher mortgage rates in recent years have already strained affordability, leading to a buildup of housing inventory. Now, with the added uncertainty of global economic conditions, more homeowners are listing their properties. This increase in supply could put downward pressure on home prices in some regions, creating opportunities for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.
What Should You Do?
If you’re looking to secure a mortgage or refinance, now is the time to explore your options. With economic volatility and potential rate cuts on the horizon, making an informed decision is crucial. At Cannect, we specialize in helping borrowers find the best mortgage solutions with unbiased advice and industry-leading rates.
Want to know how much you can save? Contact us today, and let’s discuss your best mortgage options.
Check out our latest Make Money Count video on how U.S. tariffs are affecting Canada’s economy and housing market!
