We monitor bond yields because the 5-year fixed rate mortgage in Canada is directly tied to the 5-year Government of Canada Bond Yield. Usually adding a 150BPS premium on the bond yield will get you the 5-year fixed mortgage rate. When this is out of balance it is either going to change shortly, or the market is experiencing uncertainty, and as a result Banks are pricing in more risk and profit in their mortgages.
This market shows us the likelihood of future prime rate increases or drops. By understanding what the market predicts the Bank of Canada will do with our country’s Overnight Rate we can predict what will happen to the Prime Rate and therefore our Variable Rate mortgages priced off of them. This market is very sensitive and changes constantly.
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